Cross-Disciplinary Project IDEX DEPERU Decision Process under Extreme Radical Uncertainty

Major global transitions are expected to take place in the coming years, in geopolitical, ecological, technological and social dimensions. The drastic nature of these changes and their simultaneous occurrence will generate radical forms of uncertainty, perhaps to an unprecedented level in human history. As a result, it is increasingly difficult not only to assess the likelihood of possible scenarios for the future of humankind, but also to merely circumvent the set of possible scenarios. The fact that the human mind may not be able to conceive all the possible outcomes of a given situation is the defining characteristic of radical uncertainty. As the contemporary sources of uncertainty are multiple and may lead to extreme consequences, we conjecture that the current situation is one of extreme radical uncertainties.

This raises the critical question of how humans deal with such a situation. The key issue of the project is to find whether such forms of uncertainties impact our collective and individual decision-making processes and in what way. So far, the study of decision-making under uncertainty has tended to focus on less radical forms of uncertainty, namely risk and ambiguity, where all consequences can be conceived of. Important findings in this field, whether theoretical or empirical, may thus not apply to radical uncertainty. We aim at contributing to fill this gap through the investigation of the following research questions:

• How does radical uncertainty influence decisions, and more specifically how does it inform three particular components of decision-making processes: deliberation, choice, and legitimation?
• Does radical uncertainty lead decision-makers, be they individuals, groups or organizations, to rely on decision-making processes that mark a radical break from processes currently examined?